{
  "id": "banking/cny-on-offshore-liquidity-gap",
  "signature": "AI tells a multinational corporation to settle trade in CNY (offshore) without considering the onshore-offshore RMB liquidity gap and the PBOC's daily fixing band",
  "signature_zh": "AI告诉跨国公司使用离岸人民币结算贸易，却未考虑在岸-离岸人民币流动性缺口和中国人民银行的每日中间价波动区间",
  "regex": "CNY.*(?:offshore|onshore|liquidity|gap|fixing|band)",
  "domain": "banking",
  "category": "currency_exchange",
  "subcategory": null,
  "root_cause": "The PBOC sets a daily central parity rate (fixing) for onshore CNY (CNY) with a ±2% trading band, while offshore CNH (CNH) floats freely; the liquidity gap between onshore and offshore markets can reach 300-500 pips during stress periods (e.g., month-end, trade wars), causing settlement mismatches if the contract does not specify the currency variant",
  "root_cause_type": "generic",
  "root_cause_zh": "中国人民银行为在岸人民币设定每日中间价并允许±2%的波动区间，而离岸人民币自由浮动；在岸与离岸市场之间的流动性差距在压力时期（如月末、贸易战）可达300-500个基点，若合同未指定货币变体则会导致结算错配",
  "versions": [
    {
      "version": "PBOC Central Parity Fixing v2023",
      "introduced": null,
      "deprecated": null,
      "removed": null,
      "behavior_change": null,
      "status": "active"
    },
    {
      "version": "CIPS Phase 2 (2022)",
      "introduced": null,
      "deprecated": null,
      "removed": null,
      "behavior_change": null,
      "status": "active"
    },
    {
      "version": "HKEX USD/CNH Futures Contract Spec (2024)",
      "introduced": null,
      "deprecated": null,
      "removed": null,
      "behavior_change": null,
      "status": "active"
    }
  ],
  "os_specific": {},
  "dead_ends": [
    {
      "action": "",
      "why_fails": "Cross-currency swaps between CNY and CNH are limited to $1 billion daily notional due to PBOC capital controls; during high volatility, the swap market dries up, leaving the gap unhedged",
      "fail_rate": 0.75,
      "condition": "",
      "sources": []
    },
    {
      "action": "",
      "why_fails": "The counterparty may be in a different jurisdiction (e.g., Hong Kong) and cannot access onshore CNY directly; the resulting FX conversion adds 100-200 bps in cost",
      "fail_rate": 0.8,
      "condition": "",
      "sources": []
    },
    {
      "action": "",
      "why_fails": "Convergence only occurs during low-volatility periods; historical data shows CNH can diverge from CNY by up to 2% for weeks during trade tensions (e.g., 2019-2020)",
      "fail_rate": 0.85,
      "condition": "",
      "sources": []
    }
  ],
  "workarounds": [
    {
      "action": "Specify the settlement currency as 'CNY (onshore)' or 'CNH (offshore)' in the trade contract; use a 'CNY fix' clause referencing the PBOC's daily fixing rate at 9:15 AM Beijing time",
      "success_rate": 0.95,
      "how": "Specify the settlement currency as 'CNY (onshore)' or 'CNH (offshore)' in the trade contract; use a 'CNY fix' clause referencing the PBOC's daily fixing rate at 9:15 AM Beijing time",
      "condition": "",
      "sources": []
    },
    {
      "action": "Open a 'two-way' RMB account with a bank that has both onshore (CIPS) and offshore (CHATS) access, such as HSBC or Standard Chartered; execute the settlement via the appropriate channel based on the fixing rate",
      "success_rate": 0.85,
      "how": "Open a 'two-way' RMB account with a bank that has both onshore (CIPS) and offshore (CHATS) access, such as HSBC or Standard Chartered; execute the settlement via the appropriate channel based on the fixing rate",
      "condition": "",
      "sources": []
    },
    {
      "action": "Use a 'CNY futures' contract on the Hong Kong Exchange (HKEX) to lock in the offshore rate, then settle the physical trade at the futures price; this requires a margin account with a futures broker",
      "success_rate": 0.7,
      "how": "Use a 'CNY futures' contract on the Hong Kong Exchange (HKEX) to lock in the offshore rate, then settle the physical trade at the futures price; this requires a margin account with a futures broker",
      "condition": "",
      "sources": []
    }
  ],
  "workarounds_zh": [
    "Specify the settlement currency as 'CNY (onshore)' or 'CNH (offshore)' in the trade contract; use a 'CNY fix' clause referencing the PBOC's daily fixing rate at 9:15 AM Beijing time",
    "Open a 'two-way' RMB account with a bank that has both onshore (CIPS) and offshore (CHATS) access, such as HSBC or Standard Chartered; execute the settlement via the appropriate channel based on the fixing rate",
    "Use a 'CNY futures' contract on the Hong Kong Exchange (HKEX) to lock in the offshore rate, then settle the physical trade at the futures price; this requires a margin account with a futures broker"
  ],
  "transition_graph": {
    "leads_to": [],
    "preceded_by": [],
    "frequently_confused_with": []
  },
  "official_doc_url": "https://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/130727/index.html",
  "official_doc_section": null,
  "error_code": "PBOC-CNY-LIQ-2001",
  "verification_tier": "ai_generated",
  "confidence": 0.85,
  "fix_success_rate": 0.82,
  "resolvable": "partial",
  "first_seen": "2024-04-05",
  "last_confirmed": "2024-06-01",
  "last_updated": "2024-06-01",
  "evidence_count": 1,
  "tags": [],
  "locale": "en",
  "aliases": []
}