{
  "id": "disaster/tsunami-natural-warning-self-evacuate",
  "signature": "AI tells someone on the Chilean coast to wait for an official SAE cell-broadcast alert, siren, or SENAPRED announcement before evacuating after an earthquake strong enough to make it hard to stand",
  "signature_zh": "",
  "regex": "(chile.{0,15}tsunami|tsunami.{0,15}chile.{0,15}(siren|sirena|alerta)|senapred.{0,15}tsunami)",
  "domain": "disaster",
  "category": "life_threatening",
  "subcategory": null,
  "root_cause": "Chile's SENAPRED (formerly ONEMI) instructs immediate evacuation of tsunami zones if you feel a quake strong enough to make it hard to stay standing, or observe an unusual withdrawal of the sea - without waiting for a siren or SAE alert, which are treated as reinforcement rather than the trigger. This doctrine follows the Feb 27, 2010 (Maule, '27F') magnitude-8.8 earthquake, when ONEMI failed to issue a timely tsunami warning for roughly five hours despite a valid naval fax alert and an oceanographer's warnings being ignored, contributing to tsunami deaths.",
  "root_cause_type": "generic",
  "root_cause_zh": "",
  "versions": [
    {
      "version": "any",
      "introduced": null,
      "deprecated": null,
      "removed": null,
      "behavior_change": null,
      "status": "active"
    },
    {
      "version": "any",
      "introduced": null,
      "deprecated": null,
      "removed": null,
      "behavior_change": null,
      "status": "active"
    }
  ],
  "os_specific": {},
  "dead_ends": [
    {
      "action": "Wait for an official SAE (Sistema de Alerta de Emergencia) cell-broadcast alert, a siren, or a SENAPRED announcement before evacuating the coast after a quake strong enough to make it hard to stand",
      "why_fails": "SENAPRED's own guidance instructs evacuating immediately if you feel 'un sismo que te dificulta mantenerte en pie' while in a tsunami evacuation zone. This doctrine exists because on Feb 27, 2010, ONEMI (SENAPRED's predecessor) did not issue a timely tsunami alert for the Maule earthquake for about five hours, a naval fax constituting a valid tsunami alert was not disseminated by the duty officer, and an oceanographer's warnings of incoming waves were ignored for hours - 32 deaths were attributed to the un-alerted tsunami.",
      "fail_rate": 0.85,
      "condition": "",
      "sources": [
        "https://www.senapred.gov.cl/tsunami/",
        "https://www.ciperchile.cl/2012/01/18/tsunami-paso-a-paso-los-escandalosos-errores-y-omisiones-del-shoa-y-la-onemi/"
      ]
    },
    {
      "action": "Treat a sudden, unusual withdrawal of the sea from the coastline as merely an interesting phenomenon to watch or photograph rather than an evacuation trigger",
      "why_fails": "SENAPRED lists an unusual withdrawal of the sea ('el mar se retira de forma inusual') as a natural warning sign requiring the same immediate evacuation response as strong shaking.",
      "fail_rate": 0.7,
      "condition": "Coastal area, unusual sea behaviour observed",
      "sources": [
        "https://www.senapred.gov.cl/tsunami/"
      ]
    },
    {
      "action": "Rely on a phone SAE alert as the first or primary warning mechanism when staying in a coastal tsunami evacuation zone",
      "why_fails": "SENAPRED and current media coverage of its guidance frame the SAE alert and sirens as reinforcing an evacuation that should already be underway based on natural signs - reporting explicitly frames this as 'no esperes la sirena' (don't wait for the siren). For a near-source quake there is no guaranteed lead time for an official alert to arrive before the wave.",
      "fail_rate": 0.6,
      "condition": "",
      "sources": [
        "https://www.senapred.gov.cl/tsunami/",
        "https://www.elmostrador.cl/datos-utiles/2026/06/01/que-hacer-en-caso-de-terremoto-en-chile-lo-que-dice-el-senapred-antes-durante-y-despues/"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "workarounds": [
    {
      "action": "If you feel an earthquake strong enough to make it difficult to stay standing while in a coastal area, evacuate immediately on foot to high ground without waiting for a siren or official alert.",
      "success_rate": 0.85,
      "how": "",
      "condition": "",
      "sources": [
        "https://www.senapred.gov.cl/tsunami/",
        "https://www.elmostrador.cl/datos-utiles/2026/06/01/que-hacer-en-caso-de-terremoto-en-chile-lo-que-dice-el-senapred-antes-durante-y-despues/"
      ]
    },
    {
      "action": "Treat an unusual, sudden withdrawal of the sea from the coastline as an independent, equally valid trigger to evacuate immediately.",
      "success_rate": 0.8,
      "how": "",
      "condition": "",
      "sources": [
        "https://www.senapred.gov.cl/tsunami/"
      ]
    },
    {
      "action": "Before staying in coastal Chile, identify the nearest high-ground evacuation route for your specific location using SENAPRED's tsunami risk information.",
      "success_rate": 0.7,
      "how": "",
      "condition": "",
      "sources": [
        "https://www.senapred.gov.cl/tsunami/"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "workarounds_zh": [],
  "transition_graph": {
    "leads_to": [],
    "preceded_by": [],
    "frequently_confused_with": [
      "emergency/133-131-132/cl"
    ]
  },
  "official_doc_url": null,
  "official_doc_section": null,
  "error_code": "ENAPRED",
  "verification_tier": "ai_generated",
  "confidence": 0.8,
  "fix_success_rate": 0.85,
  "resolvable": "true",
  "first_seen": "2026-08-09",
  "last_confirmed": "2026-08-09",
  "last_updated": "2026-08-09",
  "evidence_count": 3,
  "tags": [],
  "locale": "en",
  "aliases": [
    "disaster/tsunami-natural-warning-self-evacuate/cl",
    "disaster/tsunami-natural-warning-self-evacuate/nz"
  ]
}